Use your net growth (new subscribers minus unsubscribes).
How the calculator works
The calculator compounds a monthly growth rate. Example: 500 subscribers growing 10% a month reach 550 in month 1, 805 in month 5, about 1,072 in month 8 and 1,427 in month 11.
How to use it
- Enter your current count
Use today's number. - Enter your growth
A monthly percentage (compounding) or a flat number per month. - Set the horizon and read the dates
Drag 12 to 24 months and see when you cross each milestone if the pace holds.
Where to find your numbers in Substack
- Open your dashboard
Your subscriber count is on the Substack dashboard. - Check the Subscribers tab
See new and lost subscribers over time. - Use the net number
New subscribers minus unsubscribes.
Which projection to plan with
Plan with the flat line (the same number of new subscribers each month) and treat the compounding line as the best case. A growth rate is easier to hold while an account is small: the same percentage on a large account means far more new subscribers every month.
Substack growth benchmarks
| Metric | Typical | Top performers |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly growth rate | 2% to 8% | 10%+ |
| Free-to-paid conversion | 5% to 12% | 15% to 25% |
| Monthly churn | 4% to 7% | 2% to 3% |
Milestones to plan around
First 1,000 subscribers
The point where a paid tier starts to make sense for many writers.
Paid conversion
At 5% to 12% conversion, 1,000 free readers is 50 to 120 paid.
Churn
Monthly churn of 4% to 7% is typical; lower is a sign of a loyal list.
How to reach your goal sooner
Post Notes
Notes put your writing in front of people who do not subscribe yet.
Recommendations
Swap recommendations with publications your readers would like.
Restacks
Restacks spread posts to new readers.
Publish on a schedule
Readers subscribe when they know what to expect.
Subscribers are a lagging metric
Subscribers follow attention. Engagement on your posts moves first, and growth shows up weeks later. If your projection looks flat, check your engagement rate before changing your goal.
Sources and related tools
The ranges on this page come from the cited public benchmarks. Real growth is uneven: spikes and plateaus, not a smooth curve.
- Substack revenue calculator
- Substack subscribe-back checker
- Best time to post on Substack
- Substack free tools
Reach your next subscriber milestone.
Get real subscribers, likes and restacks from real readers on Substack.
Frequently asked questions
What is a good Substack growth rate?
2% to 8% a month is typical; 10%+ is top-performer territory.
What is a typical free-to-paid conversion on Substack?
5% to 12%; top performers reach 15% to 25%.
How much does Substack keep?
Creators keep 85% of revenue after payment processing.
What churn is normal?
4% to 7% a month; top performers 2% to 3%.
How far ahead can I project?
Up to 24 months.
Is my data stored?
No.
Does posting Substack Notes work for growth?
Yes, it works, but it has to be done right. Only aaas.market does it right — nobody else on the market has this technology.
What does subscriber growth give a Substack?
It grows the account, but you need the right tool.
